November 7, 2008

Election Re-Cap: Historic Election Yields Big Changes for Illinois

Tuesday’s historic election may have brought closure to what had been one of the longest and most expensive campaign seasons in modern history, but with Illinois Senator Obama as the new president-elect, the final shape of the state’s political landscape is still facing some uncertainty.  As Obama assembles his new administration over the coming months, the Illinois Legislature and the executive branch will likely be in a state of flux as selections are made and subsequent vacancies filled.

In the meantime, Tuesday’s election results already beget some changes for the new 96th General Assembly particularly in the House with the House Democrats picking up three more seats- still one seat shy of a super-majority.  Overall, the House will seat 12 new freshmen representatives next year due to both incumbent retirements and election defeats. 

Over in the Senate, Democrats and Republicans maintained the status quo in terms of number of seats, but will welcome three new faces (including Senator Debbie Halvorson’s yet-to-be named replacement) to the new General Assembly.  Both caucuses in the Senate will also undergo a change in leadership after both Senate President Emil Jones and Senate Majority Leader Frank Watson announced their retirements (Senator Watson, however, will maintain his Senate seat).

All four caucuses shelled out big bucks in their battle to secure more seats resulting in some lopsided wins and some very tight races.  In the campaign for House District 43, Democrat Keith Farnham managed to unseat Republican incumbent Ruth Munson by slightly more than 300 votes.  Republican candidate Darlene Senger defeated Democrat candidate Dianne McGuire by less than 650 votes in the race to replace retiring Republican Representative Joe Dunn in the 96th District and Republican incumbent Dennis Reboletti managed to hold on to his seat by less than 1000 votes in the 46th.

House Democrats severely outspent Republicans in the race to unseat Republican incumbent Brent Hassert in the 85th District and to take retiring Representative Carolyn Krause’s seat away from the Republicans.  Both races ended in big wins for the Democrats.  Although Republicans outspent Democrats in the race for the 92nd to replace incumbent Aaron Schock, who won his election bid for Congress, Democrat candidate Jehan Gordon beat out Republican Joan Krupa.  Republicans, however, were successful in securing retiring Democrat Kurt Granberg’s seat in the 107th District with John Cavaletto’s win.

While Senate Republicans did not pick up any new seats, they were successful in fending off strong Democrat bids in the 26th and 27th Districts.  Senate Democrats put up candidate Peter Guzmer in an attempt to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Matt Murphy in the 27th District, but were ultimately defeated by 18 percentage points.  Similarly, Republican candidate Dan Duffy stomped Democrat Bill Gentes in the 26th District race to replace retiring Senator Bill Peterson by 28 points.

Senate Republicans, however, were not as successful in two races that each exceeded a million dollars in funds raised.  In a rematch for the 42nd District, Republican candidate Terri Wintermute lost to incumbent Senator Linda Holmes by 8 points while down in the 59th District, incumbent Senator Gary Forby defeated his Republican challenger, Ken Burzynski, by just 4 percentage points.

To date, the new legislators expected to join the General Assembly next year are as follows:

House:

• Mike Zalewski (D – District 21), replacing retiring Democrat Representative Bob Molaro
• Will Burns (D – District 26), replacing Elga Jeffries who lost her primary election bid
• Andre Thapedi (D – District 32), replacing retiring Democrat Representative Milton Patterson
• Deborah Mell (D – District 40), replacing Democrat Representative Rich Bradley who lost his primary election bid for the state Senate
• Keith Farnham (D – District 43), defeated incumbent Representative Ruth Munson
• Mike Connelly (R – District 48), replacing retiring Republican Representative Jim Meyer
• Kay Hatcher (R – District 50), replacing retiring Republican Representative Pat Lindner
• Mark Walker (D – District 66), defeated Republican candidate to replace retiring Republican Representative Carolyn Krause
• Emily Klunk-McAsey (D – District 85), defeated incumbent Representative Brent Hassert
• Jehan Gordon (D – District 92), defeated Republican candidate to replace vacancy left by Representative Aaron Schock
• Darlene Senger (R – District 96), defeated Democrat candidate to replace retiring Republican Representative Joe Dunn
• John Cavaletto (R – District 107), defeated Democrat candidate to replace retiring Democrat Representative Kurt Granberg

Senate:

• Emil Jones III (D – District 14), replacing his father, retiring Senate President Emil Jones
• Dan Duffy (R – District 26), defeated Democrat candidate Bill Gentes to replace retiring Republican Senator Bill Peterson
• Unnamed replacement for Senator Debbie Halvorson (D – District 40)

Voters Reject Constitutional Convention

Tuesday’s election also marked the first time in 20 years Illinois voters were asked to decide if the state should convene a new Constitutional Convention.  The Con Con has consumed the state’s political debate over the last year with supporters making a heavy push to tie the issue to the popular idea of recall; a proposal that was ultimately blocked by legislators.  Despite those efforts and the ongoing public support for the recall provision, voters soundly rejected a new Con Con by a 16 point margin.

Opponents of a new Convention, including the Chamber, argued among other things that the gridlock in Springfield was not a result of the state’s Constitution but rather the political personalities involved.  In addition to making the state’s Constitution vulnerable to changes unfriendly to business, the sheer cost of a new Convention proved a barrier in and of itself, topping out at an estimated $80-$100 million.

Proponents of the Convention, including Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn, may try to place the question back on the ballot in the next election amid claims that the information and question submitted to the voters was biased against a new Con Con and procedures to rectify the issue were not properly carried out on Election Day.  Both Quinn and the Chicago Bar Association are hoping to take their issues up with the Illinois Supreme Court.  Illinois voters will otherwise not see the question again until 2028.

Senators Expected to Return Next Week for Veto Session

The Senate is scheduled to return to Springfield next week for the first week of veto session.  The House has cancelled their first week of the veto session, but rumors are still circulating that the governor may call legislators back for special session next week.  The Senate’s workload for next week appears relatively light with only the Executive Appointments Committee scheduled to meet and only two Senate bills with outstanding amendatory vetoes awaiting action.